Aransas Pass, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
Shoreline change 6.9 miles east of Aransas Pass, TX
Good news, and an honest one: USGS's data can't distinguish this stretch, 6.9 miles east of Aransas Pass, TX, from a flat trend. Whatever small movement it measured here is statistical noise, not a reliable direction, so none is claimed.
What this reading actually covers
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Aransas Pass, TX, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 27.95, -97.00. The survey behind it runs to 2001, in USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
How solid is this number
This reading comes from 127 individual transects averaged together, 93% of which measured erosion rather than growth. USGS's confidence interval here is ±0.51 ft/yr. The unadjusted figure here, -0.1 ft/yr, would place it 642 of 1211 if ranked directly - but an unreliable rank isn't a useful one, which is exactly why "no significant trend" is the headline instead. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. Gardiner, OR sits at national rank 1045 for growth (0.59 ft/yr), one reference point among the 1211 scored segments, 1859 miles from here. Rockport, TX, 2.2 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, itself no significant trend.
Aransas Pass, TX on the source map: try the Coastal Change Hazards Portal, zoomable well past this page's ~3.5-mile grain.