Avalon, NJ Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 1.5 miles northeast of Avalon, NJ?
Unusual good news for this stretch: the shoreline 1.5 miles northeast of Avalon, NJ has grown by a measured 2.37 feet a year on average, per USGS's long-term transect data for this section. At that rate, the shoreline has gained roughly 23.7 feet over the last decade.
The grain of this number
This is a roughly 3.5-mile stretch of coast, not one address or parcel - USGS's own transects run every few hundred feet, but that's finer than any one property needs, so this page reports the stretch nearest Avalon, NJ. Centered near 39.10°N, 74.72°W. The survey behind it runs to 2007-2009, in USGS's New England / Mid-Atlantic assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
25 years at this rate
Holding the 2.37 ft/yr accretion rate 1.5 miles northeast of Avalon, NJ for 25 years would add roughly 59 feet of shoreline, again assuming nothing about the local sediment supply changes.
Where this fits nationally
This reading comes from 31 individual transects averaged together, 0% of which measured erosion rather than growth. Uncertainty on this specific number: 1.13 ft/yr either side. Among the 1211 US coastal segments with a measurable trend, this one ranks 1171 for erosion, 1 being the fastest-retreating coast in the dataset. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2010-1119. Rank 1203 nationally for growth belongs to Chatham, MA, 301 miles from this stretch, measured at 5.4 ft/yr, 2.3x this stretch's rate. 1.5 miles away, Avalon, NJ is the nearest other measured stretch: also no significant trend.
Not this whole stretch, just Avalon itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.