Bolivar Peninsula, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
What USGS measures 5.6 miles west of Bolivar Peninsula, TX
USGS's shoreline-change data puts this stretch, 5.6 miles west of Bolivar Peninsula, TX, at 1.27 feet of erosion a year on average, a long-term rate for this specific ~3.5-mile section, not one storm's damage. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 12.7 feet over the last decade.
What "Bolivar Peninsula" means on this page
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Bolivar Peninsula, TX, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 29.47, -94.66. USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment last surveyed this stretch through 2001, computing the rate with its LRR method. Other US regions were surveyed in different years, sometimes decades apart, so this page states its own rather than implying one national vintage.
What 1.27 ft/yr means over time
Run 5.6 miles west of Bolivar Peninsula, TX's 1.27 ft/yr rate forward 25 years and it implies about 32 feet of further retreat, assuming nothing changes, which is exactly the assumption a seawall or nourishment project exists to break.
Where this fits nationally
79 transects feed this segment's number; 100% of them individually measured retreat. USGS's confidence interval here is ±0.97 ft/yr. Among the 1211 US coastal segments with a measurable trend, this one ranks 179 for erosion, 1 being the fastest-retreating coast in the dataset. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. Rank 132 nationally for erosion belongs to Virginia Beach, VA, 1191 miles from this stretch, measured at 2.07 ft/yr, 1.6x this stretch's rate. Bolivar Peninsula, TX, 1.8 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, itself no significant trend.
Not this whole stretch, just Bolivar Peninsula itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.