Bolivar Peninsula, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
What USGS measures 8.5 miles southwest of Bolivar Peninsula, TX
Good news, and an honest one: USGS's data can't distinguish this stretch, 8.5 miles southwest of Bolivar Peninsula, TX, from a flat trend. Whatever small movement it measured here is statistical noise, not a reliable direction, so none is claimed.
The grain of this number
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Bolivar Peninsula, TX, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 29.44, -94.70. USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment last surveyed this stretch through 2001, computing the rate with its LRR method. Other US regions were surveyed in different years, sometimes decades apart, so this page states its own rather than implying one national vintage.
Where this fits nationally
99 transects feed this segment's number; 100% of them individually measured retreat. Uncertainty on this specific number: 1.7 ft/yr either side. The unadjusted figure here, -1.44 ft/yr, would place it 164 of 1211 if ranked directly - but an unreliable rank isn't a useful one, which is exactly why "no significant trend" is the headline instead. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. Rank 991 nationally for growth belongs to Shinnecock Hills, NY, 1477 miles from this stretch, measured at 0.39 ft/yr. 2 miles away, Texas City, TX is the nearest other measured stretch: also no significant trend.
Bolivar Peninsula, TX on the source map: try the Coastal Change Hazards Portal, zoomable well past this page's ~3.5-mile grain.