Bolivar Peninsula, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 12.9 miles northeast of Bolivar Peninsula, TX?
USGS's shoreline-change data puts this stretch, 12.9 miles northeast of Bolivar Peninsula, TX, at 1.41 feet of erosion a year on average, a long-term rate for this specific ~3.5-mile section, not one storm's damage. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 14.1 feet over the last decade.
What this reading actually covers
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Bolivar Peninsula, TX, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 29.58, -94.38. The survey behind it runs to 2001, in USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
What 1.41 ft/yr means over time
Run 12.9 miles northeast of Bolivar Peninsula, TX's 1.41 ft/yr rate forward 25 years and it implies about 35 feet of further retreat, assuming nothing changes, which is exactly the assumption a seawall or nourishment project exists to break.
What backs this reading up
Averaging 18 separate transects produced this segment's rate, with 100% individually reading as erosion, rather than relying on any single survey line. USGS's confidence interval here is ±0.42 ft/yr. Sorted from fastest erosion to fastest growth across all 1211 measured segments nationally, this one lands at 165. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. For scale: Bolivar Peninsula, TX, 2 miles away, ranks 155 of 1211 nationally for erosion, 1.55 ft/yr, 1.1x this stretch's rate. Bolivar Peninsula, TX, 1.6 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, reading moderate erosion at 1.55 ft/yr.
Not this whole stretch, just Bolivar Peninsula itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.