Cape Charles, VA Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 10.3 miles southeast of Cape Charles, VA?
The coast 10.3 miles southeast of Cape Charles, VA has been retreating at a measured 4.69 feet a year, USGS's own long-term rate for this stretch, built from historical shoreline positions rather than a single survey. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 46.9 feet over the last decade.
What "Cape Charles" means on this page
This is a roughly 3.5-mile stretch of coast, not one address or parcel - USGS's own transects run every few hundred feet, but that's finer than any one property needs, so this page reports the stretch nearest Cape Charles, VA. Centered near 37.12°N, 75.92°W. The survey behind it runs to 2007-2009, in USGS's New England / Mid-Atlantic assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
25 years at this rate
If 4.69 ft/yr holds for the next 25 years, the coast 10.3 miles southeast of Cape Charles, VA would retreat roughly 117 more feet, a projection, not a certainty: erosion rates shift with storms, sediment supply and any armoring built in the meantime.
How solid is this number
This reading comes from 30 individual transects averaged together, 100% of which measured erosion rather than growth. Uncertainty on this specific number: 1.81 ft/yr either side. This segment ranks 56 of 1211 measured US coastal segments, ordered from fastest erosion to fastest growth. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2010-1119. Rank 105 nationally for erosion belongs to Dauphin Island, AL, 850 miles from this stretch, measured at 2.67 ft/yr, 0.6x this stretch's rate. 1.9 miles up the coast, Cape Charles, VA shows 4.73 ft/yr of eroding.
Cape Charles, VA on the source map: try the Coastal Change Hazards Portal, zoomable well past this page's ~3.5-mile grain.