Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA Coastal Erosion Rate
Shoreline change 2.3 miles south of Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA
The coast 2.3 miles south of Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA has been retreating at a measured 0.72 feet a year, USGS's own long-term rate for this stretch, built from historical shoreline positions rather than a single survey. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 7.2 feet over the last decade.
The grain of this number
This is a roughly 3.5-mile stretch of coast, not one address or parcel - USGS's own transects run every few hundred feet, but that's finer than any one property needs, so this page reports the stretch nearest Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA. Centered near 36.52°N, 121.93°W. The survey behind it runs to 1852-2016, in USGS's California assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
25 years at this rate
If 0.72 ft/yr holds for the next 25 years, the coast 2.3 miles south of Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA would retreat roughly 18 more feet, a projection, not a certainty: erosion rates shift with storms, sediment supply and any armoring built in the meantime.
How solid is this number
This reading comes from 10 individual transects averaged together, 100% of which measured erosion rather than growth. The published margin on this reading runs ±0.2 ft/yr. Among the 1211 US coastal segments with a measurable trend, this one ranks 239 for erosion, 1 being the fastest-retreating coast in the dataset. Source: USGS National Shoreline Change data release (ScienceBase, DOI 10.5066/P94J0K7Z), Kratzmann 2024 / Data Report 1187. Rank 217 nationally for erosion belongs to North Eastham, MA, 2763 miles from this stretch, measured at 0.83 ft/yr, 1.2x this stretch's rate. 1.9 miles up the coast, Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA shows the same lack of a significant trend.
Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA on the source map: try the Coastal Change Hazards Portal, zoomable well past this page's ~3.5-mile grain.