Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 8.8 miles south of Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA?
USGS's shoreline-change data puts this stretch, 8.8 miles south of Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA, at 0.59 feet of erosion a year on average, a long-term rate for this specific ~3.5-mile section, not one storm's damage. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 5.9 feet over the last decade.
What this reading actually covers
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 36.43, -121.91. Survey years: 1852-2016, method LRR, from USGS's California shoreline-change assessment. That's how current the data is here, real, but not a live feed, since a shoreline survey is a major undertaking, not an annual check-in.
What 0.59 ft/yr means over time
Run 8.8 miles south of Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA's 0.59 ft/yr rate forward 25 years and it implies about 15 feet of further retreat, assuming nothing changes, which is exactly the assumption a seawall or nourishment project exists to break.
How solid is this number
3 transects feed this segment's number; 100% of them individually measured retreat. USGS's confidence interval here is ±0.33 ft/yr. This segment ranks 273 of 1211 measured US coastal segments, ordered from fastest erosion to fastest growth. Source: USGS National Shoreline Change data release (ScienceBase, DOI 10.5066/P94J0K7Z), Kratzmann 2024 / Data Report 1187. Fenwick Island, DE sits at national rank 294 for erosion (0.52 ft/yr), one reference point among the 1211 scored segments, 2546 miles from here. 0.3 miles up the coast, Carmel-by-the-Sea, CA shows the same lack of a significant trend.
Not this whole stretch, just Carmel-by-the-Sea itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.