Carpinteria, CA Coastal Erosion Rate
What USGS measures 6.1 miles southeast of Carpinteria, CA
The coast 6.1 miles southeast of Carpinteria, CA shows no statistically significant trend either way. USGS's transects measured a rate here, but it's smaller than the survey's own margin of error for this stretch, so calling it "eroding" or "growing" would overstate what the data actually shows.
What this reading actually covers
Nothing here is parcel-level. USGS's raw transects run every few hundred feet along the shore; this page averages the ones nearest Carpinteria, CA into one ~3.5-mile reading rather than picking a single arbitrary line to represent the area. Centered near 34.34°N, 119.41°W. The survey behind it runs to 1852-2016, in USGS's California assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
Where this fits nationally
This reading comes from 72 individual transects averaged together, 94% of which measured erosion rather than growth. The published margin on this reading runs ±0.14 ft/yr. Taken at face value, this segment's raw -0.12 ft/yr reading would land it 622 of 1211 nationally - a number worth ignoring, since it's statistical noise rather than a real trend. Source: USGS National Shoreline Change data release (ScienceBase, DOI 10.5066/P94J0K7Z), Kratzmann 2024 / Data Report 1187. Rank 1184 nationally for growth belongs to Quinby, VA, 2435 miles from this stretch, measured at 3.29 ft/yr. 1.8 miles up the coast, Oak View, CA shows 0.15 ft/yr of eroding.
One address near Carpinteria: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal zooms past this stretch to the underlying map.