Casa Conejo, CA Coastal Erosion Rate
Shoreline change 8.8 miles southwest of Casa Conejo, CA
Good news, and an honest one: USGS's data can't distinguish this stretch, 8.8 miles southwest of Casa Conejo, CA, from a flat trend. Whatever small movement it measured here is statistical noise, not a reliable direction, so none is claimed.
What this reading actually covers
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Casa Conejo, CA, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 34.08, -119.02. The survey behind it runs to 1852-2016, in USGS's California assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
What backs this reading up
7 transects feed this segment's number; 100% of them individually measured retreat. The published margin on this reading runs ±0.19 ft/yr. The unadjusted figure here, -0.16 ft/yr, would place it 558 of 1211 if ranked directly - but an unreliable rank isn't a useful one, which is exactly why "no significant trend" is the headline instead. Source: USGS National Shoreline Change data release (ScienceBase, DOI 10.5066/P94J0K7Z), Kratzmann 2024 / Data Report 1187. For scale: Provincetown, MA, 2674 miles away, ranks 1129 of 1211 nationally for growth, 1.26 ft/yr. 1.6 miles up the coast, Lake Sherwood, CA shows the same lack of a significant trend.
One address near Casa Conejo: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal zooms past this stretch to the underlying map.