Chincoteague, VA Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 5.4 miles south of Chincoteague, VA?
The coast 5.4 miles south of Chincoteague, VA shows no statistically significant trend either way. USGS's transects measured a rate here, but it's smaller than the survey's own margin of error for this stretch, so calling it "eroding" or "growing" would overstate what the data actually shows.
What this reading actually covers
Nothing here is parcel-level. USGS's raw transects run every few hundred feet along the shore; this page averages the ones nearest Chincoteague, VA into one ~3.5-mile reading rather than picking a single arbitrary line to represent the area. Centered near 37.87°N, 75.37°W. USGS's New England / Mid-Atlantic assessment last surveyed this stretch through 2007-2009, computing the rate with its LRR method. Other US regions were surveyed in different years, sometimes decades apart, so this page states its own rather than implying one national vintage.
What backs this reading up
44 transects feed this segment's number; 55% of them individually measured retreat. USGS's confidence interval here is ±1.39 ft/yr. Taken at face value, this segment's raw -0.71 ft/yr reading would land it 241 of 1211 nationally - a number worth ignoring, since it's statistical noise rather than a real trend. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2010-1119. Rank 1114 nationally for growth belongs to El Segundo, CA, 2404 miles from this stretch, measured at 1.04 ft/yr. 1.3 miles up the coast, Chincoteague, VA shows 11.04 ft/yr of accreting.
One address near Chincoteague: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal zooms past this stretch to the underlying map.