Deal, NJ Coastal Erosion Rate
What USGS measures 0.4 miles west of Deal, NJ
The coast 0.4 miles west of Deal, NJ has been retreating at a measured 0.47 feet a year, USGS's own long-term rate for this stretch, built from historical shoreline positions rather than a single survey. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 4.7 feet over the last decade.
What "Deal" means on this page
This is a roughly 3.5-mile stretch of coast, not one address or parcel - USGS's own transects run every few hundred feet, but that's finer than any one property needs, so this page reports the stretch nearest Deal, NJ. Centered near 40.25°N, 74.01°W. The survey behind it runs to 2007-2009, in USGS's New England / Mid-Atlantic assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
25 years at this rate
If 0.47 ft/yr holds for the next 25 years, the coast 0.4 miles west of Deal, NJ would retreat roughly 12 more feet, a projection, not a certainty: erosion rates shift with storms, sediment supply and any armoring built in the meantime.
Where this fits nationally
100 transects feed this segment's number; 85% of them individually measured retreat. The published margin on this reading runs ±0.42 ft/yr. This segment ranks 308 of 1211 measured US coastal segments, ordered from fastest erosion to fastest growth. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2010-1119. Siasconset, MA sits at national rank 302 for erosion (0.48 ft/yr), one reference point among the 1211 scored segments, 223 miles from here. Bradley Beach, NJ, 3.1 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, itself no significant trend.
Not this whole stretch, just Deal itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.