Galveston, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 3.6 miles northeast of Galveston, TX?
Good news, and an honest one: USGS's data can't distinguish this stretch, 3.6 miles northeast of Galveston, TX, from a flat trend. Whatever small movement it measured here is statistical noise, not a reliable direction, so none is claimed.
What this reading actually covers
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Galveston, TX, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 29.23, -94.93. USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment last surveyed this stretch through 2001, computing the rate with its LRR method. Other US regions were surveyed in different years, sometimes decades apart, so this page states its own rather than implying one national vintage.
What backs this reading up
This reading comes from 43 individual transects averaged together, 100% of which measured erosion rather than growth. Uncertainty on this specific number: 0.84 ft/yr either side. The unadjusted figure here, -0.78 ft/yr, would place it 227 of 1211 if ranked directly - but an unreliable rank isn't a useful one, which is exactly why "no significant trend" is the headline instead. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. Costa Mesa, CA sits at national rank 1021 for growth (0.48 ft/yr), one reference point among the 1211 scored segments, 1387 miles from here. 1.8 miles away, Galveston, TX is the nearest other measured stretch: also no significant trend.
Not this whole stretch, just Galveston itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.