Guadalupe, CA Coastal Erosion Rate
What USGS measures 4.5 miles northwest of Guadalupe, CA
The coast 4.5 miles northwest of Guadalupe, CA shows no statistically significant trend either way. USGS's transects measured a rate here, but it's smaller than the survey's own margin of error for this stretch, so calling it "eroding" or "growing" would overstate what the data actually shows.
What "Guadalupe" means on this page
Nothing here is parcel-level. USGS's raw transects run every few hundred feet along the shore; this page averages the ones nearest Guadalupe, CA into one ~3.5-mile reading rather than picking a single arbitrary line to represent the area. Centered near 35.00°N, 120.64°W. The survey behind it runs to 1852-2016, in USGS's California assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
What backs this reading up
This reading comes from 114 individual transects averaged together, 51% of which measured erosion rather than growth. The published margin on this reading runs ±0.47 ft/yr. Taken at face value, this segment's raw -0.01 ft/yr reading would land it 766 of 1211 nationally - a number worth ignoring, since it's statistical noise rather than a real trend. Source: USGS National Shoreline Change data release (ScienceBase, DOI 10.5066/P94J0K7Z), Kratzmann 2024 / Data Report 1187. Dillon Beach, CA sits at national rank 1029 for growth (0.53 ft/yr), one reference point among the 1211 scored segments, 253 miles from here. 3.4 miles up the coast, Guadalupe, CA shows 1.54 ft/yr of eroding.
One address near Guadalupe: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal zooms past this stretch to the underlying map.