Harvey Cedars, NJ Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 0.4 miles west of Harvey Cedars, NJ?
The coast 0.4 miles west of Harvey Cedars, NJ has been retreating at a measured 1.48 feet a year, USGS's own long-term rate for this stretch, built from historical shoreline positions rather than a single survey. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 14.8 feet over the last decade.
What "Harvey Cedars" means on this page
This is a roughly 3.5-mile stretch of coast, not one address or parcel - USGS's own transects run every few hundred feet, but that's finer than any one property needs, so this page reports the stretch nearest Harvey Cedars, NJ. Centered near 39.70°N, 74.15°W. The survey behind it runs to 2007-2009, in USGS's New England / Mid-Atlantic assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
25 years at this rate
If 1.48 ft/yr holds for the next 25 years, the coast 0.4 miles west of Harvey Cedars, NJ would retreat roughly 37 more feet, a projection, not a certainty: erosion rates shift with storms, sediment supply and any armoring built in the meantime.
What backs this reading up
This reading comes from 126 individual transects averaged together, 100% of which measured erosion rather than growth. Uncertainty on this specific number: 0.65 ft/yr either side. This segment ranks 160 of 1211 measured US coastal segments, ordered from fastest erosion to fastest growth. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2010-1119. For scale: Mokuleia, HI, 4974 miles away, ranks 605 of 1211 nationally for erosion, 0.13 ft/yr, a small fraction of this stretch's own rate. Surf City, NJ, 2.4 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, reading moderate erosion at 1.52 ft/yr.
Harvey Cedars, NJ on the source map: try the Coastal Change Hazards Portal, zoomable well past this page's ~3.5-mile grain.