Hurlburt Field, FL Coastal Erosion Rate
Shoreline change 1.2 miles east of Hurlburt Field, FL
Good news, and an honest one: USGS's data can't distinguish this stretch, 1.2 miles east of Hurlburt Field, FL, from a flat trend. Whatever small movement it measured here is statistical noise, not a reliable direction, so none is claimed.
The grain of this number
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Hurlburt Field, FL, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 30.42, -86.70. The survey behind it runs to 2001, in USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
How solid is this number
This reading comes from 95 individual transects averaged together, 91% of which measured erosion rather than growth. Uncertainty on this specific number: 0.46 ft/yr either side. The unadjusted figure here, -0.25 ft/yr, would place it 436 of 1211 if ranked directly - but an unreliable rank isn't a useful one, which is exactly why "no significant trend" is the headline instead. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. Rank 1062 nationally for growth belongs to Pensacola Station, FL, 48 miles from this stretch, measured at 0.7 ft/yr. 3 miles up the coast, Mary Esther, FL shows the same lack of a significant trend.
Not this whole stretch, just Hurlburt Field itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.