Jamaica Beach, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
What USGS measures 3 miles west of Jamaica Beach, TX
The coast 3 miles west of Jamaica Beach, TX shows no statistically significant trend either way. USGS's transects measured a rate here, but it's smaller than the survey's own margin of error for this stretch, so calling it "eroding" or "growing" would overstate what the data actually shows.
The grain of this number
Nothing here is parcel-level. USGS's raw transects run every few hundred feet along the shore; this page averages the ones nearest Jamaica Beach, TX into one ~3.5-mile reading rather than picking a single arbitrary line to represent the area. Centered near 29.18°N, 95.03°W. The survey behind it runs to 2001, in USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
What backs this reading up
Averaging 8 separate transects produced this segment's rate, with 100% individually reading as erosion, rather than relying on any single survey line. Uncertainty on this specific number: 0.56 ft/yr either side. Taken at face value, this segment's raw -0.34 ft/yr reading would land it 379 of 1211 nationally - a number worth ignoring, since it's statistical noise rather than a real trend. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. Rank 1173 nationally for growth belongs to Grayland, WA, 1978 miles from this stretch, measured at 2.4 ft/yr. 1.9 miles away, Jamaica Beach, TX is the nearest other measured stretch: slight erosion at 0.6 ft/yr.
Jamaica Beach, TX on the source map: try the Coastal Change Hazards Portal, zoomable well past this page's ~3.5-mile grain.