Jenner, CA Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 4.2 miles northwest of Jenner, CA?
Good news, and an honest one: USGS's data can't distinguish this stretch, 4.2 miles northwest of Jenner, CA, from a flat trend. Whatever small movement it measured here is statistical noise, not a reliable direction, so none is claimed.
What "Jenner" means on this page
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Jenner, CA, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 38.49, -123.19. Survey years: 1852-2016, method LRR, from USGS's California shoreline-change assessment. That's how current the data is here, real, but not a live feed, since a shoreline survey is a major undertaking, not an annual check-in.
How solid is this number
Averaging 35 separate transects produced this segment's rate, with 63% individually reading as erosion, rather than relying on any single survey line. USGS's confidence interval here is ±0.19 ft/yr. The unadjusted figure here, -0.03 ft/yr, would place it 744 of 1211 if ranked directly - but an unreliable rank isn't a useful one, which is exactly why "no significant trend" is the headline instead. Source: USGS National Shoreline Change data release (ScienceBase, DOI 10.5066/P94J0K7Z), Kratzmann 2024 / Data Report 1187. Seal Beach, CA sits at national rank 1053 for growth (0.63 ft/yr), one reference point among the 1211 scored segments, 436 miles from here. 4.1 miles up the coast, Jenner, CA shows the same lack of a significant trend.
One address near Jenner: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal zooms past this stretch to the underlying map.