Jones Creek, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
What USGS measures 8.7 miles south of Jones Creek, TX
3.52 feet a year: that is the measured retreat rate USGS's transects show for the coast 8.7 miles south of Jones Creek, TX, averaged across the full historical record surveyed here. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 35.2 feet over the last decade.
The grain of this number
Nothing here is parcel-level. USGS's raw transects run every few hundred feet along the shore; this page averages the ones nearest Jones Creek, TX into one ~3.5-mile reading rather than picking a single arbitrary line to represent the area. Centered near 28.85°N, 95.50°W. The survey behind it runs to 2001, in USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
25 years at this rate
If 3.52 ft/yr holds for the next 25 years, the coast 8.7 miles south of Jones Creek, TX would retreat roughly 88 more feet, a projection, not a certainty: erosion rates shift with storms, sediment supply and any armoring built in the meantime.
What backs this reading up
Averaging 109 separate transects produced this segment's rate, with 100% individually reading as erosion, rather than relying on any single survey line. USGS's confidence interval here is ±1.94 ft/yr. Sorted from fastest erosion to fastest growth across all 1211 measured segments nationally, this one lands at 81. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. East Quogue, NY sits at national rank 395 for erosion (0.32 ft/yr), one reference point among the 1211 scored segments, 1534 miles from here. 2.7 miles away, Sargent, TX is the nearest other measured stretch: severe erosion at 4.11 ft/yr.
Not this whole stretch, just Jones Creek itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.