Jones Creek, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 7.2 miles south of Jones Creek, TX?
The coast 7.2 miles south of Jones Creek, TX shows no statistically significant trend either way. USGS's transects measured a rate here, but it's smaller than the survey's own margin of error for this stretch, so calling it "eroding" or "growing" would overstate what the data actually shows.
What this reading actually covers
Nothing here is parcel-level. USGS's raw transects run every few hundred feet along the shore; this page averages the ones nearest Jones Creek, TX into one ~3.5-mile reading rather than picking a single arbitrary line to represent the area. Centered near 28.87°N, 95.45°W. The survey behind it runs to 2001, in USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
How solid is this number
69 transects feed this segment's number; 46% of them individually measured retreat. USGS's confidence interval here is ±8.05 ft/yr. Taken at face value, this segment's raw 0.24 ft/yr reading would land it 945 of 1211 nationally - a number worth ignoring, since it's statistical noise rather than a real trend. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. For scale: Westhaven-Moonstone, CA, 1815 miles away, ranks 1151 of 1211 nationally for growth, 1.85 ft/yr. Freeport, TX, 1.3 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, itself no significant trend.
Not this whole stretch, just Jones Creek itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.