Makena, HI Coastal Erosion Rate
What USGS measures 2 miles northwest of Makena, HI
2 miles northwest of Makena, HI: USGS's transects didn't pick up a trend here that beats the survey's own uncertainty. That's the majority case nationally, and for this stretch specifically it means the coast is holding, not that the data failed to find anything.
The grain of this number
This is a roughly 3.5-mile stretch of coast, not one address or parcel - USGS's own transects run every few hundred feet, but that's finer than any one property needs, so this page reports the stretch nearest Makena, HI. Centered near 20.65°N, 156.44°W. The survey behind it runs to 2007-2010, in USGS's Hawaii assessment, using the WLR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
How solid is this number
Averaging 211 separate transects produced this segment's rate, with 91% individually reading as erosion, rather than relying on any single survey line. The published margin on this reading runs ±0.26 ft/yr. Taken at face value, this segment's raw -0.09 ft/yr reading would land it 663 of 1211 nationally - a number worth ignoring, since it's statistical noise rather than a real trend. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2011-1009. For scale: Ocean City, WA, 2567 miles away, ranks 1192 of 1211 nationally for growth, 4.1 ft/yr. 3.6 miles up the coast, Wailea, HI shows the same lack of a significant trend.
Makena, HI on the source map: try the Coastal Change Hazards Portal, zoomable well past this page's ~3.5-mile grain.