Manila, CA Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 3.5 miles north of Manila, CA?
Good news, and an honest one: USGS's data can't distinguish this stretch, 3.5 miles north of Manila, CA, from a flat trend. Whatever small movement it measured here is statistical noise, not a reliable direction, so none is claimed.
What this reading actually covers
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Manila, CA, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 40.90, -124.15. Survey years: 1852-2016, method LRR, from USGS's California shoreline-change assessment. That's how current the data is here, real, but not a live feed, since a shoreline survey is a major undertaking, not an annual check-in.
Where this fits nationally
Averaging 117 separate transects produced this segment's rate, with 3% individually reading as erosion, rather than relying on any single survey line. Uncertainty on this specific number: 0.41 ft/yr either side. The unadjusted figure here, 0.11 ft/yr, would place it 863 of 1211 if ranked directly - but an unreliable rank isn't a useful one, which is exactly why "no significant trend" is the headline instead. Source: USGS National Shoreline Change data release (ScienceBase, DOI 10.5066/P94J0K7Z), Kratzmann 2024 / Data Report 1187. Rank 1190 nationally for growth belongs to Copalis Beach, WA, 429 miles from this stretch, measured at 3.87 ft/yr. Manila, CA, 2.9 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, itself no significant trend.
One address near Manila: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal zooms past this stretch to the underlying map.