Modest Town, VA Coastal Erosion Rate
Shoreline change 3.9 miles east of Modest Town, VA
USGS's shoreline-change data puts this stretch, 3.9 miles east of Modest Town, VA, at 2.05 feet of erosion a year on average, a long-term rate for this specific ~3.5-mile section, not one storm's damage. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 20.5 feet over the last decade.
The grain of this number
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Modest Town, VA, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 37.83, -75.49. USGS's New England / Mid-Atlantic assessment last surveyed this stretch through 2007-2009, computing the rate with its LRR method. Other US regions were surveyed in different years, sometimes decades apart, so this page states its own rather than implying one national vintage.
What 2.05 ft/yr means over time
Run 3.9 miles east of Modest Town, VA's 2.05 ft/yr rate forward 25 years and it implies about 51 feet of further retreat, assuming nothing changes, which is exactly the assumption a seawall or nourishment project exists to break.
Where this fits nationally
Averaging 36 separate transects produced this segment's rate, with 100% individually reading as erosion, rather than relying on any single survey line. Uncertainty on this specific number: 1.02 ft/yr either side. This segment ranks 133 of 1211 measured US coastal segments, ordered from fastest erosion to fastest growth. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2010-1119. Rank 256 nationally for erosion belongs to Jamaica Beach, TX, 1276 miles from this stretch, measured at 0.62 ft/yr, 0.3x this stretch's rate. Modest Town, VA, 1.8 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, reading severe erosion at 3.63 ft/yr.
Modest Town, VA on the source map: try the Coastal Change Hazards Portal, zoomable well past this page's ~3.5-mile grain.