Nesika Beach, OR Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 2.8 miles north of Nesika Beach, OR?
Good news, and an honest one: USGS's data can't distinguish this stretch, 2.8 miles north of Nesika Beach, OR, from a flat trend. Whatever small movement it measured here is statistical noise, not a reliable direction, so none is claimed.
The grain of this number
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Nesika Beach, OR, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 42.55, -124.39. The survey behind it runs to 2002-2011, in USGS's Pacific Northwest assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
What backs this reading up
Averaging 101 separate transects produced this segment's rate, with 7% individually reading as erosion, rather than relying on any single survey line. USGS's confidence interval here is ±0.79 ft/yr. The unadjusted figure here, 0.12 ft/yr, would place it 869 of 1211 if ranked directly - but an unreliable rank isn't a useful one, which is exactly why "no significant trend" is the headline instead. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2012-1008. Rank 1208 nationally for growth belongs to Oyehut, WA, 308 miles from this stretch, measured at 7.54 ft/yr. 2.7 miles up the coast, Nesika Beach, OR shows the same lack of a significant trend.
Not this whole stretch, just Nesika Beach itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.