CoastErosionCheck

San Marine, OR Coastal Erosion Rate

Shoreline change 0.3 miles southeast of San Marine, OR

No significant trend

The coast 0.3 miles southeast of San Marine, OR shows no statistically significant trend either way. USGS's transects measured a rate here, but it's smaller than the survey's own margin of error for this stretch, so calling it "eroding" or "growing" would overstate what the data actually shows.

The grain of this number

Nothing here is parcel-level. USGS's raw transects run every few hundred feet along the shore; this page averages the ones nearest San Marine, OR into one ~3.5-mile reading rather than picking a single arbitrary line to represent the area. Centered near 44.35°N, 124.09°W. The survey behind it runs to 2002-2011, in USGS's Pacific Northwest assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.

What backs this reading up

This reading comes from 97 individual transects averaged together, 24% of which measured erosion rather than growth. Uncertainty on this specific number: 1 ft/yr either side. Taken at face value, this segment's raw 0.13 ft/yr reading would land it 877 of 1211 nationally - a number worth ignoring, since it's statistical noise rather than a real trend. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2012-1008. Rank 932 nationally for growth belongs to Santa Monica, CA, 771 miles from this stretch, measured at 0.21 ft/yr. 3 miles up the coast, Waldport, OR shows the same lack of a significant trend.

Not this whole stretch, just San Marine itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.