Warrenton, OR Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 2.2 miles west of Warrenton, OR?
2.2 miles west of Warrenton, OR, the coast is advancing, not retreating, at a measured 4.64 feet a year, sediment accumulating faster than any erosion USGS recorded here. At that rate, the shoreline has gained roughly 46.4 feet over the last decade.
The grain of this number
Nothing here is parcel-level. USGS's raw transects run every few hundred feet along the shore; this page averages the ones nearest Warrenton, OR into one ~3.5-mile reading rather than picking a single arbitrary line to represent the area. Centered near 46.18°N, 123.97°W. Survey years: 2002-2011, method LRR, from USGS's Pacific Northwest shoreline-change assessment. That's how current the data is here, real, but not a live feed, since a shoreline survey is a major undertaking, not an annual check-in.
25 years at this rate
Holding the 4.64 ft/yr accretion rate 2.2 miles west of Warrenton, OR for 25 years would add roughly 116 feet of shoreline, again assuming nothing about the local sediment supply changes.
How solid is this number
Averaging 25 separate transects produced this segment's rate, with 0% individually reading as erosion, rather than relying on any single survey line. Uncertainty on this specific number: 3.07 ft/yr either side. This segment ranks 1196 of 1211 measured US coastal segments, ordered from fastest erosion to fastest growth. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2012-1008. For scale: Newport Beach, CA, 926 miles away, ranks 1098 of 1211 nationally for growth, 0.94 ft/yr, 0.2x this stretch's rate. 1.6 miles away, Warrenton, OR is the nearest other measured stretch: also no significant trend.
One address near Warrenton: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal zooms past this stretch to the underlying map.