Winchester Bay, OR Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 1.7 miles southwest of Winchester Bay, OR?
Good news, and an honest one: USGS's data can't distinguish this stretch, 1.7 miles southwest of Winchester Bay, OR, from a flat trend. Whatever small movement it measured here is statistical noise, not a reliable direction, so none is claimed.
What "Winchester Bay" means on this page
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Winchester Bay, OR, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 43.65, -124.20. Survey years: 2002-2011, method LRR, from USGS's Pacific Northwest shoreline-change assessment. That's how current the data is here, real, but not a live feed, since a shoreline survey is a major undertaking, not an annual check-in.
Where this fits nationally
Averaging 92 separate transects produced this segment's rate, with 40% individually reading as erosion, rather than relying on any single survey line. Uncertainty on this specific number: 0.95 ft/yr either side. The unadjusted figure here, 0.21 ft/yr, would place it 927 of 1211 if ranked directly - but an unreliable rank isn't a useful one, which is exactly why "no significant trend" is the headline instead. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2012-1008. Gardiner, OR sits at national rank 1082 for growth (0.82 ft/yr), one reference point among the 1211 scored segments, 8 miles from here. Lakeside, OR, 3.4 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, itself no significant trend.
Winchester Bay, OR on the source map: try the Coastal Change Hazards Portal, zoomable well past this page's ~3.5-mile grain.