Winchester Bay, OR Coastal Erosion Rate
What USGS measures 2.1 miles north of Winchester Bay, OR
Unusual good news for this stretch: the shoreline 2.1 miles north of Winchester Bay, OR has grown by a measured 1.07 feet a year on average, per USGS's long-term transect data for this section. At that rate, the shoreline has gained roughly 10.7 feet over the last decade.
What this reading actually covers
This is a roughly 3.5-mile stretch of coast, not one address or parcel - USGS's own transects run every few hundred feet, but that's finer than any one property needs, so this page reports the stretch nearest Winchester Bay, OR. Centered near 43.70°N, 124.19°W. The survey behind it runs to 2002-2011, in USGS's Pacific Northwest assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
25 years at this rate
Holding the 1.07 ft/yr accretion rate 2.1 miles north of Winchester Bay, OR for 25 years would add roughly 27 feet of shoreline, again assuming nothing about the local sediment supply changes.
How solid is this number
This reading comes from 113 individual transects averaged together, 0% of which measured erosion rather than growth. USGS's confidence interval here is ±0.53 ft/yr. Sorted from fastest erosion to fastest growth across all 1211 measured segments nationally, this one lands at 1117. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2012-1008. For scale: Chincoteague, VA, 2549 miles away, ranks 1111 of 1211 nationally for growth, 1.04 ft/yr, 1.0x this stretch's rate. 3 miles up the coast, Gardiner, OR shows 0.59 ft/yr of accreting.
Not this whole stretch, just Winchester Bay itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.