Aransas Pass, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
Shoreline change 4.1 miles east of Aransas Pass, TX
Good news, and an honest one: USGS's data can't distinguish this stretch, 4.1 miles east of Aransas Pass, TX, from a flat trend. Whatever small movement it measured here is statistical noise, not a reliable direction, so none is claimed.
The grain of this number
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Aransas Pass, TX, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 27.90, -97.04. The survey behind it runs to 2001, in USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
What backs this reading up
Averaging 98 separate transects produced this segment's rate, with 10% individually reading as erosion, rather than relying on any single survey line. Uncertainty on this specific number: 1.42 ft/yr either side. The unadjusted figure here, 0.11 ft/yr, would place it 856 of 1211 if ranked directly - but an unreliable rank isn't a useful one, which is exactly why "no significant trend" is the headline instead. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. Santa Monica, CA sits at national rank 1152 for growth (1.85 ft/yr), one reference point among the 1211 scored segments, 1336 miles from here. 2 miles away, Aransas Pass, TX is the nearest other measured stretch: also no significant trend.
One address near Aransas Pass: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal zooms past this stretch to the underlying map.