Aransas Pass, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 5.1 miles east of Aransas Pass, TX?
The coast 5.1 miles east of Aransas Pass, TX shows no statistically significant trend either way. USGS's transects measured a rate here, but it's smaller than the survey's own margin of error for this stretch, so calling it "eroding" or "growing" would overstate what the data actually shows.
The grain of this number
Nothing here is parcel-level. USGS's raw transects run every few hundred feet along the shore; this page averages the ones nearest Aransas Pass, TX into one ~3.5-mile reading rather than picking a single arbitrary line to represent the area. Centered near 27.92°N, 97.02°W. USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment last surveyed this stretch through 2001, computing the rate with its LRR method. Other US regions were surveyed in different years, sometimes decades apart, so this page states its own rather than implying one national vintage.
How solid is this number
25 transects feed this segment's number; 28% of them individually measured retreat. The published margin on this reading runs ±1.11 ft/yr. Taken at face value, this segment's raw 0.02 ft/yr reading would land it 791 of 1211 nationally - a number worth ignoring, since it's statistical noise rather than a real trend. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. Bayshore, OR sits at national rank 1126 for growth (1.23 ft/yr), one reference point among the 1211 scored segments, 1877 miles from here. 2 miles away, Aransas Pass, TX is the nearest other measured stretch: also no significant trend.
Not this whole stretch, just Aransas Pass itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.