Avila Beach, CA Coastal Erosion Rate
What USGS measures 1.9 miles southwest of Avila Beach, CA
The coast 1.9 miles southwest of Avila Beach, CA shows no statistically significant trend either way. USGS's transects measured a rate here, but it's smaller than the survey's own margin of error for this stretch, so calling it "eroding" or "growing" would overstate what the data actually shows.
The grain of this number
Nothing here is parcel-level. USGS's raw transects run every few hundred feet along the shore; this page averages the ones nearest Avila Beach, CA into one ~3.5-mile reading rather than picking a single arbitrary line to represent the area. Centered near 35.18°N, 120.74°W. USGS's California assessment last surveyed this stretch through 1852-2016, computing the rate with its LRR method. Other US regions were surveyed in different years, sometimes decades apart, so this page states its own rather than implying one national vintage.
How solid is this number
25 transects feed this segment's number; 92% of them individually measured retreat. USGS's confidence interval here is ±0.33 ft/yr. Taken at face value, this segment's raw -0.08 ft/yr reading would land it 677 of 1211 nationally - a number worth ignoring, since it's statistical noise rather than a real trend. Source: USGS National Shoreline Change data release (ScienceBase, DOI 10.5066/P94J0K7Z), Kratzmann 2024 / Data Report 1187. Rank 1130 nationally for growth belongs to Orick, CA, 464 miles from this stretch, measured at 1.26 ft/yr. 0.9 miles away, Avila Beach, CA is the nearest other measured stretch: also no significant trend.
Avila Beach, CA on the source map: try the Coastal Change Hazards Portal, zoomable well past this page's ~3.5-mile grain.