Avila Beach, CA Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 2.6 miles southwest of Avila Beach, CA?
2.6 miles southwest of Avila Beach, CA: USGS's transects didn't pick up a trend here that beats the survey's own uncertainty. That's the majority case nationally, and for this stretch specifically it means the coast is holding, not that the data failed to find anything.
What this reading actually covers
This is a roughly 3.5-mile stretch of coast, not one address or parcel - USGS's own transects run every few hundred feet, but that's finer than any one property needs, so this page reports the stretch nearest Avila Beach, CA. Centered near 35.17°N, 120.76°W. The survey behind it runs to 1852-2016, in USGS's California assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
How solid is this number
2 transects feed this segment's number; 50% of them individually measured retreat. USGS's confidence interval here is ±0.28 ft/yr. Taken at face value, this segment's raw 0.01 ft/yr reading would land it 785 of 1211 nationally - a number worth ignoring, since it's statistical noise rather than a real trend. Source: USGS National Shoreline Change data release (ScienceBase, DOI 10.5066/P94J0K7Z), Kratzmann 2024 / Data Report 1187. For scale: Ilwaco, WA, 788 miles away, ranks 1198 of 1211 nationally for growth, 5.01 ft/yr. 0.9 miles up the coast, Avila Beach, CA shows the same lack of a significant trend.
One address near Avila Beach: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal zooms past this stretch to the underlying map.