Captree, NY Coastal Erosion Rate
What USGS measures 1 miles southeast of Captree, NY
USGS's shoreline-change data puts this stretch, 1 miles southeast of Captree, NY, at 1.04 feet of erosion a year on average, a long-term rate for this specific ~3.5-mile section, not one storm's damage. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 10.4 feet over the last decade.
What this reading actually covers
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Captree, NY, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 40.63, -73.25. Survey years: 2007-2009, method LRR, from USGS's New England / Mid-Atlantic shoreline-change assessment. That's how current the data is here, real, but not a live feed, since a shoreline survey is a major undertaking, not an annual check-in.
What 1.04 ft/yr means over time
Run 1 miles southeast of Captree, NY's 1.04 ft/yr rate forward 25 years and it implies about 26 feet of further retreat, assuming nothing changes, which is exactly the assumption a seawall or nourishment project exists to break.
Where this fits nationally
This reading comes from 94 individual transects averaged together, 74% of which measured erosion rather than growth. Uncertainty on this specific number: 0.57 ft/yr either side. Sorted from fastest erosion to fastest growth across all 1211 measured segments nationally, this one lands at 192. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2010-1119. Rank 200 nationally for erosion belongs to North Eastham, MA, 191 miles from this stretch, measured at 0.97 ft/yr, 0.9x this stretch's rate. 2.1 miles away, Oak Beach, NY is the nearest other measured stretch: accretion (beach growing) at 3.79 ft/yr.
Not this whole stretch, just Captree itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.