Oak Beach, NY Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 0.8 miles southwest of Oak Beach, NY?
Unusual good news for this stretch: the shoreline 0.8 miles southwest of Oak Beach, NY has grown by a measured 3.79 feet a year on average, per USGS's long-term transect data for this section. At that rate, the shoreline has gained roughly 37.9 feet over the last decade.
The grain of this number
This is a roughly 3.5-mile stretch of coast, not one address or parcel - USGS's own transects run every few hundred feet, but that's finer than any one property needs, so this page reports the stretch nearest Oak Beach, NY. Centered near 40.63°N, 73.29°W. Survey years: 2007-2009, method LRR, from USGS's New England / Mid-Atlantic shoreline-change assessment. That's how current the data is here, real, but not a live feed, since a shoreline survey is a major undertaking, not an annual check-in.
25 years at this rate
Holding the 3.79 ft/yr accretion rate 0.8 miles southwest of Oak Beach, NY for 25 years would add roughly 95 feet of shoreline, again assuming nothing about the local sediment supply changes.
How solid is this number
This reading comes from 49 individual transects averaged together, 0% of which measured erosion rather than growth. The published margin on this reading runs ±0.77 ft/yr. This segment ranks 1189 of 1211 measured US coastal segments, ordered from fastest erosion to fastest growth. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2010-1119. Coronado, CA sits at national rank 1125 for growth (1.22 ft/yr), one reference point among the 1211 scored segments, 2467 miles from here. 2.1 miles away, Captree, NY is the nearest other measured stretch: moderate erosion at 1.04 ft/yr.
Not this whole stretch, just Oak Beach itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.