Chincoteague, VA Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 3.4 miles south of Chincoteague, VA?
The coast 3.4 miles south of Chincoteague, VA shows no statistically significant trend either way. USGS's transects measured a rate here, but it's smaller than the survey's own margin of error for this stretch, so calling it "eroding" or "growing" would overstate what the data actually shows.
What "Chincoteague" means on this page
Nothing here is parcel-level. USGS's raw transects run every few hundred feet along the shore; this page averages the ones nearest Chincoteague, VA into one ~3.5-mile reading rather than picking a single arbitrary line to represent the area. Centered near 37.90°N, 75.35°W. The survey behind it runs to 2007-2009, in USGS's New England / Mid-Atlantic assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
Where this fits nationally
123 transects feed this segment's number; 73% of them individually measured retreat. USGS's confidence interval here is ±1.06 ft/yr. Taken at face value, this segment's raw -0.89 ft/yr reading would land it 213 of 1211 nationally - a number worth ignoring, since it's statistical noise rather than a real trend. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2010-1119. Rank 1057 nationally for growth belongs to West Sayville, NY, 227 miles from this stretch, measured at 0.66 ft/yr. 2.1 miles away, Chincoteague, VA is the nearest other measured stretch: also no significant trend.
Not this whole stretch, just Chincoteague itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.