Pascagoula, MS Coastal Erosion Rate
Shoreline change 10.1 miles southwest of Pascagoula, MS
Averaged across every transect USGS ran 10.1 miles southwest of Pascagoula, MS, the shoreline has been moving inland at 1.83 feet a year, a real measured rate, not a regional estimate applied to this stretch. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 18.3 feet over the last decade.
The grain of this number
Pascagoula, MS is the nearest named place, 10.1 miles away, to a ~3.5-mile stretch of coast USGS has surveyed - the reading below covers that whole stretch, not a single property in it. Segment center: 30.24, -88.65. The survey behind it runs to 2001, in USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment, using the LRR method. Shoreline surveys aren't repeated every year, so this is the most recent long-term measurement USGS has published for this coast, not a live reading.
What 1.83 ft/yr means over time
Run 10.1 miles southwest of Pascagoula, MS's 1.83 ft/yr rate forward 25 years and it implies about 46 feet of further retreat, assuming nothing changes, which is exactly the assumption a seawall or nourishment project exists to break.
How solid is this number
This reading comes from 103 individual transects averaged together, 80% of which measured erosion rather than growth. Uncertainty on this specific number: 1.78 ft/yr either side. This segment ranks 141 of 1211 measured US coastal segments, ordered from fastest erosion to fastest growth. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. Rank 160 nationally for erosion belongs to Harvey Cedars, NJ, 1047 miles from this stretch, measured at 1.48 ft/yr, 0.8x this stretch's rate. Gulf Park Estates, MS, 3 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, itself no significant trend.
Not this whole stretch, just Pascagoula itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.