South Padre Island, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
What USGS measures 2.9 miles northwest of South Padre Island, TX
The coast 2.9 miles northwest of South Padre Island, TX has been retreating at a measured 3.3 feet a year, USGS's own long-term rate for this stretch, built from historical shoreline positions rather than a single survey. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 33 feet over the last decade.
What this reading actually covers
This is a roughly 3.5-mile stretch of coast, not one address or parcel - USGS's own transects run every few hundred feet, but that's finer than any one property needs, so this page reports the stretch nearest South Padre Island, TX. Centered near 26.16°N, 97.19°W. USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment last surveyed this stretch through 2001, computing the rate with its LRR method. Other US regions were surveyed in different years, sometimes decades apart, so this page states its own rather than implying one national vintage.
25 years at this rate
If 3.3 ft/yr holds for the next 25 years, the coast 2.9 miles northwest of South Padre Island, TX would retreat roughly 83 more feet, a projection, not a certainty: erosion rates shift with storms, sediment supply and any armoring built in the meantime.
How solid is this number
63 transects feed this segment's number; 100% of them individually measured retreat. The published margin on this reading runs ±1.09 ft/yr. This segment ranks 87 of 1211 measured US coastal segments, ordered from fastest erosion to fastest growth. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. Rank 313 nationally for erosion belongs to West Hampton Dunes, NY, 1726 miles from this stretch, measured at 0.46 ft/yr, 0.1x this stretch's rate. 3 miles away, South Padre Island, TX is the nearest other measured stretch: moderate erosion at 2.78 ft/yr.
Not this whole stretch, just South Padre Island itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.