South Padre Island, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
Shoreline change 5.7 miles north of South Padre Island, TX
Averaged across every transect USGS ran 5.7 miles north of South Padre Island, TX, the shoreline has been moving inland at 2.78 feet a year, a real measured rate, not a regional estimate applied to this stretch. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 27.8 feet over the last decade.
What "South Padre Island" means on this page
South Padre Island, TX is the nearest named place, 5.7 miles away, to a ~3.5-mile stretch of coast USGS has surveyed - the reading below covers that whole stretch, not a single property in it. Segment center: 26.20, -97.20. USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment last surveyed this stretch through 2001, computing the rate with its LRR method. Other US regions were surveyed in different years, sometimes decades apart, so this page states its own rather than implying one national vintage.
What 2.78 ft/yr means over time
Run 5.7 miles north of South Padre Island, TX's 2.78 ft/yr rate forward 25 years and it implies about 70 feet of further retreat, assuming nothing changes, which is exactly the assumption a seawall or nourishment project exists to break.
Where this fits nationally
112 transects feed this segment's number; 100% of them individually measured retreat. Uncertainty on this specific number: 0.51 ft/yr either side. Among the 1211 US coastal segments with a measurable trend, this one ranks 99 for erosion, 1 being the fastest-retreating coast in the dataset. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. Rank 525 nationally for erosion belongs to Bliss Corner, MA, 1826 miles from this stretch, measured at 0.18 ft/yr, a small fraction of this stretch's own rate. South Padre Island, TX, 3 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, reading severe erosion at 3.3 ft/yr.
South Padre Island, TX on the source map: try the Coastal Change Hazards Portal, zoomable well past this page's ~3.5-mile grain.