Tiki Island, TX Coastal Erosion Rate
Shoreline change 3.6 miles south of Tiki Island, TX
Averaged across every transect USGS ran 3.6 miles south of Tiki Island, TX, the shoreline has been moving inland at 2.3 feet a year, a real measured rate, not a regional estimate applied to this stretch. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 23 feet over the last decade.
What this reading actually covers
Tiki Island, TX is the nearest named place, 3.6 miles away, to a ~3.5-mile stretch of coast USGS has surveyed - the reading below covers that whole stretch, not a single property in it. Segment center: 29.25, -94.91. USGS's Gulf of Mexico assessment last surveyed this stretch through 2001, computing the rate with its LRR method. Other US regions were surveyed in different years, sometimes decades apart, so this page states its own rather than implying one national vintage.
What 2.3 ft/yr means over time
Run 3.6 miles south of Tiki Island, TX's 2.3 ft/yr rate forward 25 years and it implies about 57 feet of further retreat, assuming nothing changes, which is exactly the assumption a seawall or nourishment project exists to break.
What backs this reading up
This reading comes from 83 individual transects averaged together, 100% of which measured erosion rather than growth. Uncertainty on this specific number: 0.27 ft/yr either side. Among the 1211 US coastal segments with a measurable trend, this one ranks 116 for erosion, 1 being the fastest-retreating coast in the dataset. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2004-1089. Rank 434 nationally for erosion belongs to Davenport, CA, 1663 miles from this stretch, measured at 0.26 ft/yr, 0.1x this stretch's rate. Galveston, TX, 2 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, itself no significant trend.
Tiki Island, TX on the source map: try the Coastal Change Hazards Portal, zoomable well past this page's ~3.5-mile grain.