Tokeland, WA Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 3.9 miles northwest of Tokeland, WA?
USGS's shoreline-change data puts this stretch, 3.9 miles northwest of Tokeland, WA, at 27.65 feet of erosion a year on average, a long-term rate for this specific ~3.5-mile section, not one storm's damage. At that rate, the shoreline has lost roughly 276.5 feet over the last decade.
What this reading actually covers
USGS surveys the coast in transects spaced a few hundred feet apart; this page groups the nearest ones into a single ~3.5-mile reading for the stretch closest to Tokeland, WA, rather than showing one arbitrary line. Segment center: 46.73, -124.06. USGS's Pacific Northwest assessment last surveyed this stretch through 2002-2011, computing the rate with its LRR method. Other US regions were surveyed in different years, sometimes decades apart, so this page states its own rather than implying one national vintage.
What 27.65 ft/yr means over time
Run 3.9 miles northwest of Tokeland, WA's 27.65 ft/yr rate forward 25 years and it implies about 691 feet of further retreat, assuming nothing changes, which is exactly the assumption a seawall or nourishment project exists to break.
How solid is this number
44 transects feed this segment's number; 100% of them individually measured retreat. USGS's confidence interval here is ±4.37 ft/yr. This segment ranks 3 of 1211 measured US coastal segments, ordered from fastest erosion to fastest growth. Source: USGS Open-File Report 2012-1008. Rank 317 nationally for erosion belongs to Casmalia, CA, 846 miles from this stretch, measured at 0.46 ft/yr, a small fraction of this stretch's own rate. 1.2 miles up the coast, Tokeland, WA shows 27.92 ft/yr of eroding.
Not this whole stretch, just Tokeland itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.