Casa Conejo, CA Coastal Erosion Rate
Is the coast eroding 9.1 miles southwest of Casa Conejo, CA?
The coast 9.1 miles southwest of Casa Conejo, CA shows no statistically significant trend either way. USGS's transects measured a rate here, but it's smaller than the survey's own margin of error for this stretch, so calling it "eroding" or "growing" would overstate what the data actually shows.
What this reading actually covers
Nothing here is parcel-level. USGS's raw transects run every few hundred feet along the shore; this page averages the ones nearest Casa Conejo, CA into one ~3.5-mile reading rather than picking a single arbitrary line to represent the area. Centered near 34.09°N, 119.05°W. Survey years: 1852-2016, method LRR, from USGS's California shoreline-change assessment. That's how current the data is here, real, but not a live feed, since a shoreline survey is a major undertaking, not an annual check-in.
How solid is this number
This reading comes from 57 individual transects averaged together, 26% of which measured erosion rather than growth. USGS's confidence interval here is ±0.25 ft/yr. Taken at face value, this segment's raw 0.06 ft/yr reading would land it 829 of 1211 nationally - a number worth ignoring, since it's statistical noise rather than a real trend. Source: USGS National Shoreline Change data release (ScienceBase, DOI 10.5066/P94J0K7Z), Kratzmann 2024 / Data Report 1187. Rank 1189 nationally for growth belongs to Oak Beach, NY, 2525 miles from this stretch, measured at 3.79 ft/yr. Casa Conejo, CA, 1.7 miles off, is the adjacent measured stretch, itself no significant trend.
Not this whole stretch, just Casa Conejo itself: the Coastal Change Hazards Portal is USGS's own live version of this data.